Banks maintain that the Philippine economy remains one of the most resilient in the region, amid escalating global recessionary risks and heightened trade tensions.
Bank of the Philippine Islands president and CEO Jose Teodoro Limcaoco said the country remains relatively insulated from global recession risks due to its strong domestic consumption and controlled inflation. He noted that the country is in a better position than many of its peers, and may even find opportunities amid the broad tariff policies, given its comparatively favorable exposure.
In its latest economic outlook, UBS maintained a positive stance on the Philippines, citing minimal exposure to global trade disruptions and the likelihood of further monetary policy easing.
The optimism comes as the Trump administration announced sweeping trade measures, including a 10 percent tariff on most of the United States’ trading partners. The Philippines faces a 17-percent tariff, which is the second lowest in the ASEAN after Singapore.
However, UBS noted that the country’s overall trade-to-GDP ratio remains significant at around 66 percent, suggesting vulnerability in the event of a broader global slowdown.
Meanwhile, Moody’s senior director Choon Hong Chua warned that the wider Asia-Pacific region might feel more of the strain from rising trade barriers. He noted that US tariffs are fueling concerns over global supply chain disruptions and potential increases in consumer prices. To manage those risks, he emphasized the importance of improving supply chain visibility and agility.
With turbulent times come all sorts of opportunities that could lead to either success or failure. How the Philippine economy is managed during these times, as the world reacts and adjusts to the risks and tensions caused by disruptions in the world’s biggest economy, could determine whether the future will be brighter or darker for millions of Filipinos. Hopefully our country’s leaders are up to the enormous challenges that lie ahead.*
