According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) Director Teresito Bacolcol, at least 34,000 fatalities and 114,000 injuries are expected in case an earthquake similar to the one that struck Morocco, which was magnitude 6.8 and killed at least 2,900, were to hit Metro Manila.
According to Bacolcol, the West Valley Fault is already ripe for another major earthquake. “The last time it moved was in 1658. Based on our study the recurrence interval is between 400 and 600 years. If we will base the 400 (years), 1658 plus 400 years, that would be around 2058. So we do not expect it to be exact by 2058, it could be earlier or it would be after, but the closer we are, the higher the possibility that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake will happen,” he explained.
The projected death toll was part of a study conducted in 2004 by the Japan International Cooperation Agency on preparedness for a 7.2 earthquake or “the Big One” along the West Valley Fault. “Our basis of casualties was based on the number of collapsed buildings, the population, the stability of the houses, and the intensity of shaking,” Bacolcol said.
He warned that the country needs to be prepared for the Big One, which has been repeated by the PHIVOLCS every time a powerful earthquake elsewhere demonstrates its destructive effects in other areas of the world.
The question that both the government and private sector needs to ask, especially after seeing the destruction in Morocco, along with the recent earthquake that devastated parts of Turkiye and Syria, is that given all the time in the world, have Filipinos been preparing enough, not only on how to respond to the destruction, but also by improving and updating building codes and enforcement to ensure that the structures that currently make up our towns, cities, and metropolises can actually safely withstand a Big One, if and when the oft-repeated predictions come true and it does strike?
Or are the many warnings of PHIVOLCS officials falling on deaf ears and those pretending to be blind?*
