The Philippines has been identified by Nomura Global Markets Research as among the 50 countries most vulnerable to a surge in food prices if energy and fertilizer costs remain elevated amid the Middle East conflict and if the coming El Niño develops into an extreme weather event.
The country ranked 21st out of 110 countries in Nomura’s Food Price Vulnerability Index that measures exposure to sharp food price increases based on nominal gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in US dollars at market exchange rates, the share of food in total household consumption, and net food imports as a percentage of GDP.
The Philippines posted a score of 100.7 on the index, which estimated 2025 GDP per capita at $4,270. It also found that food accounted for 37.3 percent of total household spending in 2023, while net food imports were equivalent to 2.7 percent of GDP in 2024.
At the top of the index, Montenegro, Libya, Tajikistan, Lebanon, Syria, Senegal, Bangladesh, Kyrgyz Republic, and Venezuela were identified as the most exposed economies. Forty-eight of the 50 most vulnerable countries are developing economies, with a combined population of about 4.7 billion.
At the other end of the spectrum were New Zealand, Ecuador, Ireland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Switzerland, Uruguay, Denmark, and Singapore, which were the least exposed. Twenty-eight of the 50 least vulnerable economies are advanced economies, with a combined population of about 1.1 billion.
Nomura said the Middle East conflict has so far had a more limited impact on food prices than on energy, but warned that the agricultural supply and demand balance could shift quickly later this year if energy and fertilizer costs remain high and El Niño turns severe. It added that any resulting spike in food prices could be amplified by rising protectionism in agriculture, financial speculation, and hoarding, echoing previous global food crises.
It further cautioned that a food price surge would likely be more damaging than an energy shock, as it would more sharply reduce household spending on essentials. Such a development would push up headline inflation and risk unanchoring inflation expectations, and prompt stronger monetary tightening by central banks.
“The surge in energy prices has already caused headline inflation to spike around the world and could soon start crimping aggregate demand,” Nomura said. “But were food prices to also surge, the stagflation impact stands to be more profound, particularly in developing countries.”
As a country that is among the most vulnerable to a surge in food prices, which is becoming a likely possibility given how fuel and fertilizer costs remain elevated, along with the likelihood of a “strong” El Niño, our government is going to have to be as prepared as possible, which means going beyond telling its people to simply brace themselves or tighten their belts. If measures to mitigate the impact on agriculture and food production turn out to be not enough, adequate social safety nets will need to have been readied for deployment by then, because that is what governments are expected to provide during times of crisis.*
