Scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network who used modeling to compare weather patterns in today’s world against a hypothetical world without human-induced warming have found that conditions conducive to the development of consecutive typhoons in the region have been enhanced by global warming.
They concluded that human-induced climate change fueled the rare string of back-to-back typhoons that battered the Philippines this year, along with boosting the chances of powerful storms making landfall.
Five typhoons and a tropical storm hit the Philippines over a 23-day period across October and November, killing more than 170 people and causing at least $235 million in damage, according to authorities.
The study found that the warmer climate makes it 25 percent more likely that at least three Category 3-5 typhoons will make landfall in the Philippines in a year.
The unprecedented formation of four typhoons last month was made 70 percent more likely as a result of the global temperature rise of 1.3 Celsius, it added.
“Such consecutive extreme events make it difficult for populations to recover,” the scientists warned. They added that the world’s current warming trajectory puts the country on course for even worse effects.
“While it is unusual to see so many typhoons hit the Philippines in less than a month, the conditions that gave rise to these storms are increasing as the climate warms,” said Ben Clarke, a weather researcher at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy, one of the report’s authors.
Though scientists are cautious when it comes to attributing individual weather events to climate change, the consensus is that warmer oceans are intensifying rainfall and wind speeds across the globe.
The Philippines needs major investment to tackle the challenges it faces from climate change, the scientists said.
The scientists are merely confirming what most of us have already been observing regarding extreme weather in this country. The frequency and intensity are alarming, and the typhoon train that we experienced a couple of months ago was both a reminder and a warning of how things are going to be. We should be doing all we can to mitigate the effects of climate change, while at the same time bracing ourselves so we can bear the brunt of those attacks.*
