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Covid reproduction rate to slow down

The country will have to deal with as much as 20,000 daily cases of Covid-19 before reproduction rate eventually slows down by the middle of September.

OCTA Research fellow, Dr. Guido David, said in the Laging Handa press briefing yesterday that the spike in cases is due to the highly transmissible Delta variant.

He added that the effect of lockdowns won’t manifest at once.

“Usually, it takes three to four weeks before we can see the decrease of cases. But we can already see the decrease on reproduction number or the transmission of infection,” he said.

In Metro Manila, that was placed under enhanced community quarantine on Aug. 6 to 20 and modified ECQ starting Aug. 21, David said the transmission of the disease has slowed down from 1.47 to 1.0.

Going by David’s estimate, the transmission will slow down and cases will decrease by the middle of September.

But, as of now, David said it is expected that the country’s Covid-19 cases will continue to increase.

“Since we reached 19,000 a day, it could increase to more than 20,000 new Covid-19 cases per day, given that our reproduction number is still greater than 1 nationwide,” David said.

Breaching more than 30,000 cases is not possible, he added.

Ranjit Rye, OCTA Research professor, said the imposition of the two-week ECQ greatly contributed to the reduction of Covid-19 transmission and slowed down the reproduction number.

Rye reminded the need to strictly follow minimum public health standards such as wearing of mask, face shield, and social distancing.

He also said vaccination will control the surge of Covid-19 cases.

NEW CASES

Meanwhile, an additional 16,864 patients have beaten the coronavirus disease 2019, pushing the country’s overall recovery count to 1,794,278, as of yesterday.

The Department of Health, in its latest Covid-19 bulletin, said recoveries account for 90.8 percent of the total 1,976,202 infections since the start of the pandemic last year.

A record 22,366 new cases were also reported, increasing the active cases to 148,594 while death toll reached 33,330 after the DOH logged 222 new deaths.

Of the active cases, 95.7 percent are mild, 1.7 percent are asymptomatic, 1.1 percent are severe, 0.97 percent are moderate, and 0.6 percent are in critical condition.

“Some 187 duplicates removed from the total case count as 174 of these are recoveries and one is death. Moreover, 105 cases previously tagged as recovered were reclassified as deaths after final validation,” it said.

DOH data on Saturday also showed that 27.5 percent of 65,237 who were tested turned out positive for Covid-19.

To date, 74 percent of 4,100 intensive care unit beds, 65 percent of 20,400 isolation beds, 70 percent of 14,800 ward beds, and 53 percent of 3,200 ventilators dedicated to patients with Covid-19 are in use nationwide.*PNA

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