Energy officials warned of the possibility of more rotating brownouts later this year as a looming strong El Niño threatens to strain the country’s power supply further, leading to additional yellow and red alerts.
A yellow alert indicates that available power reserves are thinning, meaning any unexpected plant outage could trigger service interruptions. A red alert means supply is insufficient to meet demand, increasing the likelihood of rotational blackouts unless consumption is managed.
Department of Energy officials recently said that power alerts could persist in the coming months as rising temperatures push electricity demand higher.
The Visayas grid, which remains heavily dependent on power from Luzon and Mindanao, is expected to experience seven yellow alerts during afternoon peak hours. In the evenings, the situation could worsen, with six red alerts and seven yellow alerts forecast, raising the risk of brownouts across the region.
Mindanao is not expected to experience red alerts, but officials say the grid could still face six yellow alerts between September and November.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) earlier warned of a 92 percent probability of a moderate to strong El Niño developing in the fourth quarter of the year. The weather phenomenon is linked to extreme climate conditions such as drought, erratic rainfall, and stronger heat waves.
Energy officials said that power generation and distribution companies are coordinating closely to minimize the impact of the dry spell on the country’s electricity supply.
The recurring power alerts may also drive up electricity rates, as demand could drive up spot market rates.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said the government is pursuing long-term projects to strengthen the grid, including new power plants in Toledo, Cebu, and Iloilo, Panay. The DOE also plans to conduct more green energy auctions focused on the Visayas and Mindanao, while renewable energy facilities such as solar plants would be paired with battery energy storage systems to improve grid stability.
A strong El Niño can reduce the output of thermal power plants if they run too hot, or increase demand for power needed for cooling and air conditioning. If it leads to droughts, it can affect the capacity of hydroelectric power plants. These conditions, or a combination of such, could certainly lead to thinning or depleted power reserves which means yellow and red alerts.
Does the DOE have a playbook and the necessary resources prepared for such an eventuality? Or will the ever-resilient Filipino have to do the adjusting once more?*
