• GILBERT P. BAYORAN
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) reported yesterday that magma is now less than five kilometers away from the crater of Kanlaon volcano, based on its projections.
PHIVOLCS director Teresito Bacolcol said they are closely monitoring the rise of magma to the crater.
If the magma nears the crater, there is swelling, which is an indication that it is accumulating near the crater, Bacolcol said.
He, however, said that the inflation is still limited to the eastern side of the volcano as of now, and not all its sides.
Alert Level 3, or magmatic unrest, prevails over Kanlaon Volcano.
State volcanologists have noted a significant drop of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, to 2,183 tons on February 9, from an average of more than 4,000 tons since June 3 last year.
PHIVOLCS also noted the absence of ash emissions since February 7, which may indicate that the volcanic conduit is plugged, resulting in a pressure build-up that could trigger an explosion, Bacolcol said, citing prior Kanlaon eruptions on December 9 last year, and Feb. 6 this year.
Based on their projections, Bacolcol said they are looking into three scenarios at Kanlaon Volcano, including the slow rise of magma, where the lava may overflow from the crater, similar to what had happened at Mt. Mayon last year, where damage was only confined to small areas.
However, it took six months for the magma flow to weaken, he added.
The second scenario, Bacolcol added, is the fast rising of magma and plugging of the volcanic conduit, which may result in a strong eruption.
If that happens, it will possibly lead to hazardous pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), with the danger zone being expanded up to 10 kilometers, he said.
Such volcanic activity will not last long, as the release of magma from the volcano is very fast, Bacolcol said.
As of this time, we are not yet on the second scenario, he pointed out.
The third scenario, he further said, is the weakening of the movement of magma, which eventually leads to the complete stop of its activity. If this happens, we may lower the alert level from 3 to 2, he added.
As to the effects of the muddy stream flow last week, due to rains, Bacolcol reported that there was no reported damage, as it was confined only to the Buhangin River, which flows through the towns of La Castellana and Moises Padilla.*
