The war in Iran and the oil price shock that followed have underscored the vulnerability of the Philippines to economic crime and geopolitical risk, according to the 2026 Economic Crime and Geopolitics Index, a measure that assesses corruption levels, the severity of economic crime, public response, and geopolitical pressures to gauge how these forces shape political stability.
The score edged up from 71.65 in November 2025, keeping the Philippines in the “high risk” category, together with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Myanmar, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Thailand.
The index was developed by Asanga Abeyagoonaskekera, a Sri Lankan foreign policy analyst and senior fellow at the Millenium Project in Washington DC, to serve as a “forward looking early-warning mechanism” for governments, investors, and security analysts.
For countries like the Philippines, their integration into global manufacturing networks exposed them more directly to external shocks created by the war, the report noted.
“This shift is not primarily the result of domestic governance deterioration. Rather, it reflects the systemic impact of external geopolitical pressures, including energy supply disruptions, rising import costs, and supply chain instability triggered by the Iran war, “ the report read.
“The disruption of key maritime chokepoints has amplified the strategic importance of Indo-Pacific economies, effectively transforming what was once a fragmented risk landscape into a continuous high-risk corridor spanning South and Southeast Asia,” it added.
Petroleum industry sources in the country have said that it is unlikely that fuel prices at the pump would soon come down from where they have risen since the Middle East war of US President Donald Trump against Iran erupted. The turmoil has already prompted the central bank to raise its average inflation forecast for 2026 to 5.1 percent from 3.6 percent previously, with price gains likely to hit as high as 5 percent in April and breach the official target band of 2-4 percent.
“Economic crime risk is no longer isolated within national boundaries but is being amplified systematically across the region by external shocks,” the report noted.
The vulnerability of the Philippines to economic crime and geopolitical risk is a well-documented issue that has yet to be addressed, and has been exposed yet again by the direct and indirect effects of the war of the US-Israel alliance against Iran in the Middle East. With no guarantees that the situation will ever stabilize, given the unpredictability of the whims and motivations of the crop of leaders in this new world order, our government has come up with a long term plan and find the ways and means to mitigate those risks. It may be a bit too late now, but never should not be an option.*
