Researchers say that even if global warming is capped at the ambitious 1.5 degrees Celsius target that presently seems unachievable, rising seas will still severely test humanity’s resilience in the second half of the 21st century and beyond, as the pace at which oceans are rising have doubled in three decades, and on current trends will double again by 2100 to about one centimeter per year.
“Limiting global warming to 1.5C would be a major achievement” and avoid many dire climate impacts, said lead author Chris Stokes, a professor at Durham University in England. “But even if this target is met, sea level rise is likely to accelerate to rates that are very difficult to adapt to.”
Without protective measures such as sea walls, an additional 20 centimeters of sea level rise by 2050 would cause some $1 trillion in flood damage annually in the world’s 136 largest coastal cities, earlier research has shown.
Some 230 million people live within 1 meter of sea level, and more than a billion reside within 10 meters.
Sea level rise is driven by the disintegration of ice sheets and mountain glaciers, as well as the expansion of warming oceans, which absorb 90 percent of the excess heat due to climate change.
In 2021, the UN-mandated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected the “likely” sea level rise of 40 to 80 cm by 2100, depending on how quickly humanity draws down greenhouse gas emissions, but left ice sheets out of their calculations due to uncertainty.
“We are probably heading for the higher numbers within that range, possibly higher,” said Stokes.
Given such dire warnings from scientists, an archipelago with an expansive coastline such as the Philippines has to start preparing for such an eventuality as early as possible. As there is practically nothing we can do about the expected rise of the sea levels, coastal towns and cities, which are a majority in this country, will have to relocate entire communities and designate other areas as new danger zones. It may seem like we still have time, but if we don’t act with urgency now, a couple of decades will have passed and the water will suddenly be lapping at our feet, and still nothing has happened.*
