The Philippines continued to be a laggard in the ASEAN tourism recovery, amid the muted return of Chinese visitors, and the Bank of America (BofA) said the situation is unlikely to take a turn for the better anytime soon, following the order of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to ban China-centric online casinos.
In a recent commentary, BofA economist Kai Wei Ang said the Philippines “underperformance” partly stemmed from the exodus of Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs) during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These gaming operators mostly employ Chinese nationals who cater to punters in mainland China, where gambling is banned.
Ang said Chinese arrivals in the country were “still below 20 percent of 2019 levels,” as the pandemic-induced departure of POGOs also coincided with the slow return of Chinese tourists after their country reopened its economy much later than other Asian countries.
“The Philippines is lagging considerably behind, with tourist arrivals below 70 percent of 2019 levels,” he said.
Transport data compiled by BofA showed outbound seats from China to five ASEAN destinations are expected to grow in the second quarter of this year through October, except in the Philippines.
For this year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas forecasts tourism receipts to grow by 40 percent, which would contribute to the projected $1.6 billion dollar surplus in 2024, which if realized, would be smaller than the $3.7B windfall recorded in 2023.
In the ASEAN region, Vietnam is the current leader in tourism recovery due to more relaxed visa rules, while Singapore is middling after the boost from the Taylor Swift concerts have faded. Malaysia, on the other hand, could expect bigger Chinese arrivals, with inbound travel seats from China expected to beat pre-pandemic levels, the bank added.
When it comes to the common good, the decision to ban POGOs is certainly the right one. However, any decision will have impacts on the country and in this case, tourism, a sector that we have already been lagging in, will certainly be affected. It is now up to our government to move quickly and urgently to mitigate those impacts by finding alternatives to the markets that were lost by the closure of POGOs, and resist the temptation to use it as an excuse for poor performance this year.*
