“Agriculture is the most healthful, most useful and most noble employment of man” – George Washington
To date, Trump has 13 charges, 4 of which are indictments with two of each on state and federal levels respectively. This includes the infamous January 6, 2021, incident – when his supporters trooped the capital Washington DC as he refused to accept defeat. Despite this Mr. Trump continued his hold on the Republican Party (GOP) and eventually won the convention to be the party’s Presidential candidate and ultimately won the Presidency. President-elect Donald trumped Kamala Harris and easily surpassed the 270 winning number electoral college votes.
AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES
It is important to understand Trump’s agriculture policy impacts international trade relations, including the Philippines. In his first term he had a far more controversial agriculture record when he started a very costly global trade war where agriculture was a major component and quite aggressively rolled back environmental policies, and called climate change a “hoax”. Apprehensively, his second assumption to office will pursue expanded tariffs and broader regulation policies as he promised. This the world awaits.
President Biden and Vice President Harris expanded opportunities for American farmers for a transition to sustainable practices allocating $20B under the Inflation Reduction Act for climate-smart agriculture, and committed zero emission by 2050 – the first in the world. But Trump’s first presidency pulled back more than a hundred regulations on environmental protection, later reversed by Biden. His global trade war was against China when he was President which plummeted the US exports resulting in billions of dollars of losses, but undertook a dole out to offset such losses. Economic experts are restless when he takes the oval officeas he promised to be tougher on China.
PHILIPPINE IMPLICATIONS
The US elections anticipates that major policy shifts are expected, including agriculture. And, while foreign geopolitical concerns and security are equally important to the Philippines especially on the issue of the West Philippines I devote this small space to agriculture and trade policies under a Trump leadership.
With a remarkable political comeback, it has wide-ranging implications for international relations and trade in the Asia-Pacific region are coming. A perceived longtime ally with “deep” cultural, historical and cultural ties, is seen to offer challenges and opportunities.
Trump’s slogan or “Make America Great Again” simply means a “America First” policy affecting America’s trade agreements with Asian countries, including the Philippines. As his first term saw his withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership, whether he will be firmer now remains a question. For us, economic planners, experts and advisers must deeply look at the global trade dynamics and how the US plays an important role with the Philippines as a major trade “partner” and a strategic point or channel of trade in the region. We must remember that agriculture remains to be our major export, and a major turning point is the tariff which can become a major issue.
The inevitability of globalized economy alternative markets can also be an option but not without re-investing for global competitiveness is more than an urgency. Being an ally, the idea of establishing bilateral agreements with the US can be thrown at the table, but as to how it will materialize remains unclear.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Globally controversial was the withdrawal of Trump from the Paris Climate Agreement which was criticized by vulnerable or “victim” states that included the Philippines. We increasingly suffer from the rapid and worsening severe typhoons, rising sea levels, and other climate-related challenges. In the combat against climate the Philippines is seen as a strong advocate for international climate action and financial support including the active civil society movement. Should Trump maintain the same position we might be in a dilemma between keeping the US as a political and military ally while a climate change nemesis.
We have started efforts for clean and renewable energy transition while recognizing the vital role of fossil fuel in the economy, at this point. It is hoped that current efforts are not dampened with Trump’s re-occupation of the oval office.
Our efforts at enhancement and modernization of agriculture to be at par with other global agricultural products while ensuring domestic necessities such food security and diversification of products must go hand in hand with expanding economic partners in Asia and Europe while maintaining relationships with the US.
To reiterate, a major trade policy shift will be underway under Trump’s leadership and whether we will enjoy or endure is what remains to be seen.*
