A lot of Filipinos seem to be worried over a shooting war breaking out between their country and China, especially as the latter’s aggression has recently ramped up in the West Philippine Sea, a part of our sovereign territory that our government had just resumed defending, after we got ourselves a “tough guy” leader who totally disappointed by practically abandoning it for around 6 years, giving the Chinese plenty of opportunities to do whatever they wanted in that part of our world.
Having done practically whatever the hell they wanted in the WPS, China is now bristling at seeing Filipinos trying to make their way back to the area, which is evident at how aggressive and violent they have been. They have already been illegally fishing, building, and occupying it for years, but they are now taking matters to the next level because we allowed the pirate squatter fleet to think that they already won and now own those waters.
If you come to think of it, they did win and we lost big time when our leaders failed to fight for our own territory. After all, possession is 95% of the law, and even the illegal squatters know that. With a much smaller civilian fleet and navy, no military bases built on artificial islands, and having thrown away the only legal win we earned at the UNCLOS Arbitral Tribunal at the Hague, China has done whatever it wanted to do in our waters for more than 6 years. Any squatter will tell you that they already won by then. And any pirate will agree with a hearty Arrr!
Going back to the question of war, I don’t think there will be war between China and the Philippines. If I were China, I wouldn’t need to go to war because I already won the territory without having to fire a single shot. All I needed to do was intimidate an old man who liked to prance around like a tough guy. Why go to war when you already won?
In the case of the Philippines, there is no reason to go to war because we cannot afford it. They have a bigger navy and pirate squatter merchant fleet. We may have a defense treaty with the Americans in case we are dragged into war, but the bottom line is that we do not want to go to war. We will fight, using all means necessary short of a shooting war, to slowly win back as much of our own territory and seas as we can, but no government in its right mind will go to war against China.
As the saying goes: Nobody wins in a war. Everyone loses.
That means that our allies that we are counting on to have our back because we have a defense treaty in force also do not want to go to war, especially against a world superpower. They will pick and defend our side if their hand is forced, but nobody wants to go to war.
The good thing is that even China will lose if they go to war. Aside from the obvious losses in soldiers, arms, equipment, and vessels. They will lose international support and trading partners. Why should they go through all that for a patch of sea that they have already been allowed to occupy for more than 6 years?
The bad thing is that, war or no war, we have already lost when we chose a leader that allowed them to occupy our territory, undisputed for more than 6 years.
Given the current state of affairs, war only becomes an option if we choose it. China knows it can continue to bully, harass, illegally occupy and fish, even put Filipinos in harm’s way, which are all essentially acts of war, but never declare it because there is no need to, as they have already achieved their objectives. The burden of declaring war is therefore on the Filipino side, which could happen if we reach the point that we cannot take it anymore, and decide that we are willing to pay the price, which if you come to think of it, is one that even China is not willing to pay.
It is normal to worry about war, especially after seeing what it has done to Ukraine and Gaza, especially knowing what we are up against. This is the closest we will ever be to one, because even if nobody really wants a war, these things can still break out for the stupidest reasons. But unless something really bad goes wrong, we should be able to avoid it.
However, the problem of taking back the territory and resources that we have lost to the regional bully-squatter-pirate will be a more complicated one if we are going to resolve it without going to war. Whatever resources we are willing to expend in a war against China will have to be spent on finding a war-free solution, while at the same time actively preparing for one. That is the price we will be paying for allowing them in in the first place.*
