In my previous article I discussed the practical reasons why I don’t think war will break out between the Philippines and China despite the escalating incidents at the West Philippine Sea.
However, if you look back at history and see how World War I started, you realize that the reasons for going to war can also be irrational, so it also becomes important that our country has to be prepared for one, which in our particular case would be against a world superpower that has been on a war footing for decades.
The first thing we have to assume is that we cannot count on the USA to bail us out. While the Americans will help out because of the mutual defense treaty, there will be limits to that assistance. The long and the short of it is that if we are going to war with China, it will be the lives of Filipino soldiers at stake.
Based on the size and equipment of the armed forces alone, we are no match for China. They have more of everything, from personnel, arms, ammunition, equipment, ships, aircraft, technology. However, as the Ukrainian experience has shown, there are many creative ways of defending your country/territory from a bigger foe.
Although if you come to think of it, the disadvantage of the Ukrainian experience is that Russia’s mistakes have also shown China where it can improve its war machine, so let us just hope that the Filipino is more ingenious and capable of coming up with surprises that can allow us to fend off an overconfident aggressor. That would be a good test for our famed resilience and ingenuity.
Furthermore, we will also need to pray that our leader is a courageous one who will ask for ammo, not a ride. This is going to need a lot of prayers on our end because based on the genetics of our current leader, the chances of a Marcos fleeing the country again when the going gets tough and Uncle Sam offers a ride, are pretty high. However, if we take a look at the bright side, at least the junior has the mettle to stand up against China, unlike his predecessor who promised an epic jetski ride but literally sold us out instead.
If we are going to prepare for war, we will need modern weapons, which in this day and age, means smarter, not bigger. When it comes to a potential conflict in the WPS, the weapon platform that our Philippine Navy should be researching, developing, or stockpiling should be the Ukrainian maritime drones, which were used with great effect by a country that had no navy to neutralize what was supposed to be one of the world’s most powerful in the Black Sea.
We certainly cannot afford, or have the time to order the necessary warships, submarines, or aircraft carriers to discourage a Chinese attack if push comes to shove. However, if we had a good number of unmanned maritime drones, the ability to sink enough Chinese ships would make them think twice about steamrolling their way through the WPS.
A sizeable fleet of unmanned maritime drones, with bases peppered all over the western seaboard of the country, would be a better deterrent and weapon system than a few big hand-me-down ships that would be easily sunk by a bigger battleship, submarine, or fighter jet of our potential enemy. An additional benefit would be that being unmanned, there would be less Filipino lives at stake, and the drone operators don’t have to be battle-ready soldiers, which leaves our armed forces with more battle-ready fighters.
Aside from maritime drones, our country should also spend on anti-ship missile batteries, either fixed or mobile, deployed all over our western seaboard. Just to send a message to any potential aggressor that we won’t be pushovers if a war breaks out.
The only reason I can see for us not doing anything more to make the country as unpalatable for war as possible is our dependence on our Mutual Defense Treaty with the USA. We would like to think that the Americans will go all in with us in case of war, and more importantly, we should hope that China continues to think so too, as that thought might be the only thing keeping them from escalating the bullying in the WPS. While that strategy is working so far, we have to be practical too and plan for the worst, which is a scenario where the USA only provides the bare minimum support. That becomes an even greater possibility if someone like Donald Trump wins, because that guy who has the gall to stiff his contractors and abandon his own political allies and sycophants that he no longer finds useful, simply can’t be counted on.
War is a costly endeavor, as is preventing one. When facing a country as aggressive and battle-ready as China, their potential targets have to make the decision to go to war as unpalatable as possible. How the Philippines can achieve that is the Herculean challenge our Defense Department and Commander in Chief must urgently face. As of now, those of us who are just observing how our country is trying to prevent a war don’t have a lot of reasons to be confident. Hopefully that changes before it is too late.*
