Emerging Asian markets, including the Philippines, will continue to drive gas-to-power demand until 2033, as power sectors are seen to remain “carbon intensive” amid rising demand, according to international think tank BMI.
BMI, a unit of the Fitch Group, said in a report that Asian countries were expected to see strong growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG), with Philippine LNG imports projected to surge by 280 percent over the next nine years.
While the Philippine government has reiterated its goal of increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix, the Department of Energy has also reiterated that LNG – a fossil fuel – was crucial for the energy transition.
Gas-fired power plants currently supply a fifth of the country’s energy needs, and according to BMI, the country will import around 12 billion cubic meters by the end of the decade.
Globally, LNG-based power generation is expected to increase to 7,786 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2033 from 6,563 TWh last year, to meet growing demand from emerging markets. Gas-based power output in emerging markets in Asia is also seen to grow by 39 percent.
BMI also noted in a separate report that while the Philippine LNG market is set for “strong growth,” its capacity to import supply might be barred by “the buyers’ ability to pay,” which could expose consumers to the highly volatile spot market.
Having LNG as part of our energy transition was a decision that government and the power sector made, claiming that among fossil fuels, it is the cleanest option. If it can hasten our transition to renewable energy, then that could be considered a necessary evil, but it has to be part of a plan that has a renewable energy end in mind, and shouldn’t become a temporary solution that somehow becomes permanent.
If the transition to renewable energy and ending dependency on fossil fuels has to go through LNG, then so be it. However, government and the power sector have to ensure that the end goal is still the same and the efforts to achieve it are not derailed during the process.*
