Forecasters at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration are expecting the country to experience more rains due to a 70 to 80 percent chance for the La Niña weather phenomenon to form in the last quarter of the year.
“PAGASA’s recent climate monitoring and analyses indicate that La Niña may emerge in the coming months,” said the weather bureau in a recent statement.
“Based on the latest forecasts by most climate models and experts’ judgements, there is a 70-80 percent chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may persist until the first quarter of 2022,” the statement added.
La Niña is characterized by below-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator as a result of shifting wind patterns in the atmosphere. It usually results in a high probability of above normal rainfall conditions in many areas of the country.
PAGASA added that eastern sections of the country that normally receive more rainfall during the last quarter of the year could further increase the likelihood of more adverse impacts such as floods and landslides over highly vulnerable areas.
In a world where the changing climate has been associated with more intense weather disturbances and phenomenon, forecasts of increased rainfall have to be taken seriously.
Urban centers will need to ensure the proper maintenance of drainage and flood control systems so they can function as designed and prevent the inconvenience and damage that usually come when they are tested by torrential rains. Vulnerable communities will have to be checked to ensure that the risks are minimized while rescue equipment and evacuation centers should be ready for action.
Rural and farming communities can only do so much to prepare for an expected La Niña but those that are more prepared will be able to weather the storms better. The drainage systems of farmlands and communities will need checking for cleaning and repair if necessary. Rivers and creeks will also need to be made ready with cleanups and warning systems so the most destructive effects of flash floods can be prevented when the rains do start.
There is nothing we can do to stop weather phenomenon like La Niña but the communities that have taken advantage of the advance warning to properly prepare can minimize the risks and damage in case our weather forecasters are correct.*
